上月会议纪要显示配资中心，许多美联储官员希望在支持今年进一步降息前看到通胀进一步回落，尤其是在就业市场持续企稳的情况下。
美联储利率制定委员会的19名成员中，**绝大多数**表示，在2025年底失业率上升后，有迹象显示就业市场已趋于稳定。会议纪要显示，多数官员一致认为，美联储的关键利率已接近一个既不会刺激也不会抑制经济的水平。这份会议纪要于周三公布，距离央行1月27日至28日的会议已过去三周。
美联储官员在会议上同意将基准利率维持在约3.6%不变，此前去年年底已连续三次降息。但有两名官员——美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）和克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）——投票支持再次降息25个基点。
会议纪要凸显了委员会内部存在严重分歧，形成了多个阵营："数名"官员表示，若通胀持续下降，进一步降息"可能是合适的"。但"部分"官员倾向于"在一段时间内"维持利率不变，暗示暂停加息的时间可能更长。另有数名官员称，他们本可支持在会后声明中加入措辞，表明若通胀率持续高于2%的目标，美联储下一步行动可能是降息或加息。
此次释放对潜在加息持开放态度的信号，似乎较此前会议立场发生显著转变。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在去年会议后曾表示，加息的可能性根本不在考虑范围内。
美联储主席鲍威尔在1月会议后释放信号，表示美联储可能会等待数月才会再次降息。他在新闻发布会上指出，自央行去年12月召开会议以来，经济与就业状况已有所改善，并补充称美联储当前处于"有利位置"，可在未来几个月评估经济发展态势后再决定是否采取进一步行动。
美联储决定维持利率不变，此举无视了唐纳德·特朗普总统多次提出的将基准利率降至1%的要求——这一水平几乎没有经济学家支持。虽然美联储下调基准利率会逐步降低住房抵押贷款、汽车贷款和企业贷款的借贷成本，但这些利率同样受到金融市场的影响。
会议纪要显示，19人委员会中的**绝大多数**成员认为，失业与劳动力市场恶化的风险已有所降低，这可能是他们投票决定维持利率不变的关键原因。美联储通常通过降息来刺激消费、增长和就业。
上周公布的数据显示，美联储短期内不太可能降息。根据美联储青睐的衡量标准，通胀率仍处于高位，而1月份的就业报告表明上个月招聘活动有所增加。这些趋势支持了那些认为经济无需进一步降息的美联储官员的观点。
政府上周公布的数据显示，1月份消费者价格同比上涨2.4%，与美联储设定的2%通胀目标相去不远。
但美联储关注的是一项不同的通胀指标，该指标目前处于更高水平。本周五公布的最新数据预计将显示，该指标同比上涨约3%。美联储青睐的这一指标对住房和公寓租赁成本的权重低得多——这类成本已显著降温——因此其数值目前高于更为人熟知的消费者价格指数。
上周，政府还表示1月份就业形势有所改善，雇主新增了13万个工作岗位，这是一年多来的最大增幅，同时失业率从4.4%降至4.3%的低点。
美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔（Michael Barr）周二援引就业报告指出，劳动力市场正在"趋于稳定"，而通胀率仍高于2%。
巴尔表示，基于当前形势和现有数据，在一段时间内维持利率稳定可能是合适的。
另据报道，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周二向美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）表示，如果有证据表明通胀率正接近2%，美联储今年可能会进一步降息数次。
鲁加贝尔为美联社撰稿。
Many Federal Reserve officials want to see inflation fall further before they would support additional interest rate cuts this year, particularly if the job market continues to stabilize, minutes of last months meeting show.
The vast majority of the 19 participants on the Feds rate-setting committee said that there were signs the job market has stabilized, after the unemployment rate rose in late 2025, the minutes said. And most of the officials agreed that the Feds key rate is close to a level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. The minutes were released Wednesday, three weeks after the central banks Jan. 27-28 meeting.
Fed officials at that meeting agreed to keep its key rate steady at about 3.6%, after cutting it three times late last year. Two officials Fed governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted instead to cut another quarter-point.
The minutes underscored the deeply divided nature of the committee, with several camps emerging: Several officials said additional cuts will likely be appropriate if inflation continues to decline. But some officials favored keeping rates unchanged for some time, suggesting a longer pause. And several other officials said they could have supported language in the statement issued after the meeting that would signal the next move by the Fed could be either a cut or a rate hike, if inflation remains above their 2% target.
The support for signaling an openness to a potential rate hike appears to be a significant shift from previous meetings. Chair Jerome Powell said after meetings last year that the idea of a rate hike wasnt on the table.
Powell signaled after Januarys meeting that the Fed could wait for a few months before cutting rates again. He said at a news conference that the economy and hiring had improved since the central bank had previously met in December, and added that the Fed was well positioned to evaluate how the economy evolves in the coming months before making any further moves.
The decision to keep rates unchanged defied a stream of demands from President Donald Trump for the Fed to reduce its key rate to as low as 1%, a level few economists endorse. When the Fed cuts its key rate, it can over time lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and business loans, though those rates are also influenced by financial markets.
The minutes said that the vast majority of the 19-person committee agreed that the risks of job losses and a worsening labor market had diminished, likely a key reason that they voted to keep rates unchanged. The Fed typically cuts rates to boost spending, growth, and hiring.
Figures released last week suggest the Fed will be unlikely to cut anytime soon. Inflation remains elevated, according to the Feds preferred measure, and Januarys jobs report showed that hiring picked up last month. Those trends support those Fed officials who argue that the economy doesnt need further rate cuts.
Consumer prices grew 2.4% in January compared with a year earlier, the government said last week, not too far from the Feds 2% target.
But the Fed focuses on a different measure of inflation, which is running higher. When the latest figure is released Friday, it is expected to have increased roughly 3% from a year earlier. The Feds preferred measure puts much less weight on housing and apartment rental costs, which have cooled considerably, and as a result it is running above the better-known consumer price index.
Also last week, the government said that hiring improved in January, with employers adding 130,000 jobs, the biggest gain in just over a year, while the unemployment rate slipped to a low 4.3%, down from 4.4%.
Fed Governor Michael Barr on Tuesday pointed to the jobs report as evidence that the labor market is stabilizing, while inflation remains above 2%.
Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time, Barr said.
Separately, Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, told CNBC Tuesday that the Fed could reduce rates several more times this year, if there is evidence that inflation was moving closer to 2%.
Rugaber writes for the Associated Press.配资中心
联华证券提示：文章来自网络，不代表本站观点。
热点资讯
